Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR), once a darling among altcoin enthusiasts for its unique DAG-based distributed ledger technology and high-speed transaction capabilities, is now facing a crucial moment. The market’s mood has shifted drastically as the coin finds itself caught in a persistent downtrend. Traders and long-term holders are watching nervously, looking for any signs of reversal or at least stabilization.
One of the dominant technical indicators reflecting the current market situation is the descending wedge pattern, a chart formation typically indicative of sell-side dominance. Though descending wedges can sometimes mark the start of bullish reversals, that’s not always the case—especially when the pattern fails to break out upward within a reasonable timeframe. In HBAR’s case, the wedge is growing tighter, reflecting compression in volatility but without any bullish breakout. This market structure screams caution. Sellers appear in control, and buyers are still hesitant, as reflected in the price action and lack of significant green candles.
The continuous lower highs and lower lows reinforce the view that the market has not yet reached equilibrium. Momentum indicators and volume profiles echo this bearish sentiment, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm to accumulate at these levels. Retail traders seem to be waiting for clarity, while smart money might already be positioning—either through short positions or preparing to buy at lower levels.
Elliott Wave Theory and the Wave 4 Correction
Technical analysis becomes especially insightful when integrated with Elliott Wave Theory, and in HBAR’s case, that’s where much of the market analysis is currently focused. According to this theory, markets move in a predictable pattern of five waves in the direction of the trend, followed by three corrective waves. Right now, analysts believe HBAR is experiencing a wave 4 correction, which is notoriously tricky to forecast due to its often sideways or complex nature.
The prevailing interpretation is what analysts refer to as the blue count, a labeling scenario that suggests the market is deeply entrenched in a bearish cycle unless something dramatic shifts. Under this assumption, HBAR is not only in a corrective phase but is on its way to completing the final leg of that correction. The wave 4 correction in the blue count model typically follows a steep drop and precedes a final bearish thrust before the market can potentially bottom out.
While the white count scenario—an alternative labeling approach—allows for a potential rally to 28 cents under specific conditions, it remains a secondary possibility unless HBAR can break out above key resistance levels convincingly. Until that happens, the market sentiment remains firmly grounded in the blue count’s cautionary outlook.
Why the 17.3¢–19.1¢ Resistance Zone Is Crucial
In any bearish trend, identifying potential reversal points or resistance zones is vital. For HBAR, the zone between 17.3¢ and 19.1¢ has proven to be the ultimate ceiling in recent months. This area has absorbed every bullish attempt thrown at it, consistently pushing the price back into bearish territory. The repeated failure to break above this resistance reflects both a technical and psychological barrier.
Traders and analysts alike have noted how the resistance zone coincides with prior support levels that flipped bearish—a classic technical analysis concept known as support becoming resistance. This zone is also where the descending wedge converges with historical horizontal resistance, making it a significant confluence zone. A breakout above this area would not only challenge the wedge formation but could also invalidate the prevailing wave count assumptions.
However, as of now, the price has respected this ceiling religiously. Without a breakout, optimism remains speculative at best. Even short-term rallies are met with profit-taking, showing that bulls haven’t gained enough traction to reverse the overall market structure.
A Closer Look at the Microstructure: The C-Wave Unfolds
Digging deeper into the internal wave structure, HBAR’s price seems to be in the midst of a wave C to the downside, part of the broader ABC correction sequence. According to the blue count model, this wave C is likely a five-wave impulse heading lower. If this count is accurate, HBAR has already completed waves 1 through 4, and the market is now moving into the final and potentially most painful wave 5.
This final leg is where the price could find its true bottom—at least for this cycle. The structure suggests that the fifth wave may be extended, a feature in Elliott Wave Theory where the final wave is longer and often more dramatic than the previous ones. This scenario is especially relevant if capitulation occurs, where weak hands exit en masse and volatility spikes sharply.
Micro-level analysis using 1-hour and 4-hour candles supports this narrative. Oscillators such as the RSI and MACD continue to show bearish divergences, and volume spikes have been associated with down moves rather than any meaningful accumulation. This microstructure analysis helps pinpoint not just the direction but also the likely zones of reversal—useful for both short-term traders and long-term holders.
Alternate Path: The White Count Possibility
While the dominant analysis favors the bearish blue count, it’s important to consider the white count, a less likely but plausible alternate scenario. According to this view, HBAR may currently be finishing an overshooting B-wave within a larger corrective structure. If true, this could mean a temporary move up to around 28 cents before resuming the downtrend.
This scenario assumes that the current bearish momentum could exhaust itself sooner than anticipated, leading to a short-lived but powerful rally. However, for the white count to become the primary view, a lot must change in the market—starting with a break above the 19.1¢ resistance and a confirmation through increased trading volume and bullish momentum indicators.
So far, these confirmations haven’t materialized. As such, the white count remains a background scenario. Still, it’s valuable to monitor it, especially if HBAR begins to show strength above key resistance zones. A move toward 28 cents could be highly profitable for swing traders, particularly those using leverage or looking to hedge spot positions.
This is where trading platforms like Bybit come into play. With Bybit’s deposit bonus offers, new traders can enter the market with added capital, allowing them to position themselves advantageously during such potential breakout phases.
Fibonacci Projections and Support Targets: 12.7¢–12.8¢
The next major support zone, according to both Elliott Wave projections and Fibonacci extension levels, lies between 12.7 cents and 12.8 cents. This range aligns with the 100% extension of the wave A leg and also corresponds with a prior wave 4 from earlier cycles—a significant convergence that adds to its credibility as a strong support zone.
Fibonacci analysis is often misunderstood as a predictive tool, but in reality, it’s more of a probability enhancer. When multiple technical signals converge at a specific level, the chances of price reacting—either by stalling, reversing, or consolidating—are significantly increased. In HBAR’s case, this zone might become the battlefield where bulls and bears fight for dominance.
If the price reaches this zone with high volume and a bullish divergence on momentum indicators, it could mark a local bottom, triggering a new trend. Conversely, if this level breaks, the next leg down could be brutal. Given the psychology of round numbers and prior cycle lows, breaking below 12 cents could cause panic selling and cascade effects across the broader altcoin market.
Sentiment and Market Psychology
Market behavior isn’t solely governed by charts and wave counts—sentiment plays a massive role. Currently, social media buzz around HBAR is tepid. The coin, once praised for its enterprise partnerships and high TPS (transactions per second), is now overshadowed by other layer-1 competitors and AI-focused tokens. This sentiment erosion adds pressure, as fewer buyers means less support on dips.
Google Trends data for “HBAR” and “Hedera Hashgraph” has also declined, reflecting reduced public interest. On-chain data shows decreasing wallet activity, hinting at either user fatigue or investors moving their assets elsewhere. When traders lose interest, volatility often shrinks until a trigger event wakes the market up.
This dormant phase could, however, provide savvy traders with opportunities. Accumulating during periods of fear has historically been profitable—if timed correctly. This is why it’s vital to watch volume and social sentiment data as closely as price movements.
Can HBAR Recover? Scenarios for a Bullish Reversal
So, can HBAR recover from this gloomy picture? Technically, yes—but the path is steep and filled with obstacles. The most crucial event that could flip the narrative is a decisive breakout above the 19.1¢ resistance, backed by volume and momentum indicators.
Such a breakout would do more than just change the charts—it would shift market psychology, bringing sidelined capital back into play. A successful retest of the breakout zone followed by higher highs would confirm a trend reversal, making the blue count invalid and giving credence to a larger wave 5 rally scenario.
A fundamental catalyst could also help. Positive news such as a major partnership, institutional investment, or platform upgrade might trigger renewed interest. HBAR’s enterprise-focused ecosystem still holds potential—especially in regulated environments that prefer centralized governance over fully decentralized systems.
Until then, HBAR is likely to remain in a holding pattern. But as history has shown, markets often change course when the majority least expects it. Being prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios is what separates winning traders from the rest.
Trading HBAR Safely in a Volatile Market
Navigating a volatile market like HBAR’s requires not only technical knowledge but also risk management. Using stop losses, scaling into positions, and avoiding emotional trades are non-negotiables in such an environment.
If you’re planning to trade HBAR during this volatile period, consider doing so on a platform that rewards you from the start. Platforms like Bybit offer deposit bonuses that allow you to test trading strategies with less risk to your capital. Whether you’re swing trading based on Elliott Waves or day trading the lower timeframes, extra funds can provide flexibility and confidence.
Additionally, paper trading and simulated accounts can help you practice different wave scenarios without financial consequences. Whether you’re aligning your trades with the blue count or preparing for a surprise white count breakout, proper preparation can make all the difference.
Waiting for Confirmation
HBAR is in a critical phase. With a descending wedge, dominant wave 4 correction, and unbroken resistance at 17.3¢–19.1¢, the market is treading water. All eyes are now on whether the final C-wave completes with a capitulation or if a surprise bullish breakout challenges the blue count.
Technical confluence zones like the 12.7¢–12.8¢ support range are worth watching. Meanwhile, traders are advised to remain cautious but alert, especially as alternate counts offer possible rally scenarios toward 28 cents.
Until key resistance levels are breached, and sentiment returns, HBAR remains under pressure. But markets are dynamic, and opportunities arise even in bearish conditions—especially for those who are prepared, well-informed, and equipped with the right tools.
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